Does trading bigger work?
A common claim is that memecoin trading only pays at size. We measured it on every closed position in our own fill ledger — each wallet's realised return on its own trades, banded by how much SOL went in.
401,770
closed positions measured
69%
of large positions from 5 wallets
12,019
distinct tokens they traded
Return by position size
| Position (SOL) | Positions | Median | Win rate | IQR (pts) | Top 5 wallets |
|---|
| under 0.05 | 59,501 | -0.6% | 9% | 20 | 81% |
| 0.05 - 0.1 | 25,392 | -7.3% | 27% | 27 | 85% |
| 0.1 - 0.25 | 62,742 | -5.2% | 36% | 31 | 66% |
| 0.25 - 0.5 | 64,757 | -3.6% | 39% | 28 | 68% |
| 0.5 - 1 | 65,000 | -2.7% | 42% | 26 | 49% |
| 1 - 5 | 99,551 | -3.1% | 40% | 27 | 60% |
| 5 - 20 | 16,346 | +0.6% | 52% | 17 | 60% |
| 20+ | 8,481 | +1.8% | 66% | 6 | 88% |
Median is the middle closed position; win rate is the share that returned more SOL than went in; IQR is the spread between the 25th and 75th percentile, so a small number means positions cluster tightly. The last column is what share of that band's positions come from just five wallets.
The ladder is real, and it is not about sizing up. Win rate does climb with position size — from 28% below 0.1 SOL to 66% above 20. But large positions are not diversified trading: 69% of every position above 5 SOL comes from five wallets, running over a hundred closed trades a day each across 12,019 different tokens. That is an industrial operation, not position sizing. You cannot reproduce those returns by trading larger; you would have to be running the same machine.
The five wallets behind the top bands
| Wallet | Positions 5+ SOL | Median | Win rate |
|---|
| Ar2Y6o1QmrRA… | 5,603 | +2.3% | 65% |
| kEFiAX3jo5Nm… | 4,998 | +0.3% | 52% |
| 1aDerPKk87xJ… | 3,073 | +0.4% | 52% |
| 8zkgFGVZrDLi… | 2,492 | +1.1% | 54% |
| wJDv8gqP8TFq… | 993 | +3.4% | 69% |
Tight spreads and high hit rates at this frequency are the signature of systematic market-making, not discretionary trading. Two of these wallets are graded not copy-viable — their own returns do not transfer to anyone copying them.
What this does not show. These are the wallets we track, not the whole chain, and realised return on a trader's own fills is not what a copier receives — see
the wallet board for that gap. Positions where the tokens were never sold are counted as total losses; that changes the medians by under half a point, so abandoned bags are not driving the pattern.